Amazon Leo is the only Western LEO broadband program besides Starlink with the balance-sheet depth to build a full first-generation constellation, and launch supply binds it rather than capital, manufacturing or demand.
It stands at 396 satellites, 24.5% of its FCC 50%-deployment milestone, missed July 30, 2026 without a Commission enforcement act to date. Both high-capacity vehicles carrying most of its 80+ contracted missions are grounded, New Glenn since the May 28 pad explosion that followed its one H1 2026 flight, flown for a competitor. Its edge over Starlink is not the space segment, where it is structurally 2-4 years behind on deployed capacity, but three assets Starlink cannot easily replicate. One is a forward-booked enterprise, mobility and telco-wholesale demand book sold through Amazon's own channel machinery, with AT&T now its largest named US carrier channel. Another is MSS spectrum plus Apple as a contracted D2D anchor tenant, bought via the $11.6B Globalstar acquisition and defended by a Washington practice that files against SES and Viasat as readily as against SpaceX. The third is a parent balance sheet able to fund losses on an AWS-like timeline. Australia's NBN Co and ~19-state US BEAD, both targeting 2026 delivery, test the demand-book claim before the enterprise, aviation and D2D leg lands in 2027-2028.
(a) by end-2028, Amazon Leo's realised revenue still tracks its capacity deficit rather than its demand book
The end-2028 window has not opened yet. It closes once the Delta, JetBlue, evry and next-gen D2D commitments come due and Starlink's V3/Mobile V2 capacity arrives. Tripping it would mark Amazon Leo a lagging capacity clone whose only durable edge is Amazon's willingness to fund losses longer than a standalone operator could
(b) once launch catches up to the FCC's deployment milestones, Amazon Leo's realised revenue still lags its demand book because of a per-cell capacity ceiling rather than continued launch-bound status
Launch has not yet caught up, so this test has not begun
The Sep 20 finding holds five weeks on, reconfirmed in TRACKED SERIES: fcc-docs-index.json's saved documents stay capped at Aug 28 even as its watermark climbs past 7,500. A direct docs.fcc.gov fetch around that gap recovered DA 26-973, below. KUIP holds at 398 launched/396 in orbit since July 2, so the Jul 30 milestone's compliance status past Aug 28 stays unconfirmed. The launch manifest by vehicle is charted in STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS.
DA 26-973, released Sep 11, adopts Amazon's proposed Ka-band reference links and keeps the database "representative, not exhaustive" as its Aug 31 ex parte argued. It also sets the carrier-to-noise threshold at SpaceX's lower bid over SES's — mechanics in POLITICAL & REGULATORY. Amazon filed again Sep 24, content unread.
DA 26-866's Sep 17 comment and Sep 28 opposition deadlines closed with no challenger from SES, Lynk, Iridium, Rocket Lab or SpaceConnect, leaving Oct 5's reply deadline as the last gate. Amazon's Sep 23 ex parte in the FCC's separate spectrum-abundance docket preceded the Commission's Sep 30 vote opening new Ku-/Ka-band spectrum.
A Sep 23 Uzbekistan reseller deal with UZ-SAT extends the channel with no disclosed terms. The guided Q3 2026 commercial-service start closed Sep 30 with no confirmed launch, extending Amazon's record of self-projections slipping downside. NBN Co, BEAD and American Airlines remain the standing conversion tests in STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS.
Home thread: "Amazon Leo (fka Kuiper) constellation buildout," a 12-month positioning watch touching "Chinese BRI Digital Silk Road," "Satellite consolidation wave," "2 GHz MSS spectrum allocation" and "US C-band spectrum reallocation." Amazon Leo is still not primarily a head-to-head threat to SES's core MEO and GEO business, but four things sharpen the file.
SES's non-Musk, European-anchored, non-Chinese identity hedges against Starlink and Amazon Leo alike, but only where EU sovereign-preference politics hold, and SpaceConnect exists to break them.
Go to the FCC primary record, not trade press, for Amazon Leo's own numbers. DA 26-553's actual milestone bar, 1,616 of 3,232 satellites, not the widely-replicated 1,618/3,236, is the standing example. Synthesized WebSearch prose is a lead, never citable: a 2026-07-27 summary misdated a restoration date by over a year, and a 2026-09-08 one flattened ITIF's two-sided comment into plain Amazon support. Amazon's own self-projections have been beaten to the downside twice, per the tracked record: the ~700-by-July-30 guidance, and "mid-2026" slipping to "later in 2026." Discount forward Amazon guidance.
Named analysts earn different weights. Rayal (2026-04-16) is the best structural account of why MSS ownership beats SCS subordination, and the source of this file's spectrum inventory. His "Iridium as Amazon's next target" call was answered against him by Rocket Lab three months later. Amazon did bid, though: Farrar's sources name it as the losing "Party A". Farrar's 2026-03-25 Globalstar-outcome call was wrong, but his 2026-08-05 S-4 read wasn't wrong on substance. SpaceX, his inferred "Party C," really did bid, losing on the unresolved Apple relationship, not price. His deal-*direction* calls earn more trust than his deal-*outcome* calls, and his D2D-economics reasoning, that Amazon lags Starlink Mobile V2 into 2028, stays intact and unrebutted.
FCC access stays two-tier. www.fcc.gov 403s as usual, but re-querying a blocked ECFS filing through the single-filing-lookup endpoint has recovered three filings logged as permanently unreadable. Treat "403-blocked at every path tried" as a claim to retest, never a settled state. The Globalstar transfer-of-control public-interest statement remains unread. Jay Schwarz, Chief of the Space Bureau, holds three named orders in this file's record: DA 26-398, DA 26-553 and DA 26-866, all favorable to Amazon. Read that as consistent Bureau doctrine on scarcity-driven delay, not favoritism, absent a case where he ruled against Amazon.
The FCC compliance-silence claim is now unconfirmed, not established. The mirror's saved-document list froze at DA-26-923 on Aug 28. Its watermark counter has since climbed past 7,500 with nothing new surfacing, five weeks running, independently corroborated by the daily brief's own ops-repair queue flagging the identical gap since Sep 21. A direct docs.fcc.gov fetch by document number resolves what the mirror alone cannot: it recovered DA 26-973, a real Sep 11 order the stalled index never surfaced. Real DA-26 numbering continues past Aug 28. Only the mirrored copy froze. Treat every "compliance silence" row dated after Aug 28 as unconfirmed, and default to a direct docs.fcc.gov fetch whenever a specific order is suspected to exist in the gap.
Nine corrected blind spots to date share one failure class: an unread or under-mined source later overturned by a fuller read, logged in full in SUPERSEDED. 07-27 inherited a false start-date horizon. 08-01 trusted unread ECFS metadata for a docket number instead of the filing itself. 08-07 and 08-11 found unmined NBN Co and BEAD facts in two already-read Farrar reports. 08-17 weighted two companies' conflicting releases toward whichever party had least incentive to round to a clean narrative. 08-23 found a three-times-cited source whose own footnotes held an unfollowed document number. 09-08 was three failures at once, all filing metadata read as though it were the filing itself. The remaining blind spot is unchanged: no hard subscriber, ARPU, terminal-shipment or Leo-segment revenue figure exists anywhere read across seven passes. The demand book stays contracts and betas, not demonstrated share-taking, until a disclosure or a service launch tests it.
Q1-Q3, Q10, Q16-Q17, Q19 resolved in prior passes and moved to CHANGELOG per the format contract. Numbering stays unbroken for cross-dossier references.
Does DA 26-553 get cited as precedent in another NGSO operator's filing, SES or O3b mPOWER included?
Resolves whenan ECFS filing citing it, shared with launch-bottleneck Q6.
Does Amazon Leo secure Indian authorization, on what terms against Jio and Starlink?
Resolves whena DoT GMPCS grant or IN-SPACe authorization, per non-western-sovereign-constellations.
Does SpaceConnect win concrete EU Space Act concessions against SES's European-preference position?
Resolves whenSpace Act text movement, or SpaceConnect filings.
Does the demand book convert? The guided Q3 2026 window closed with no confirmed launch.
Resolves whenan NBN Co service-launch confirmation, a BEAD construction-start notice, an AT&T availability date, or disclosed Leo revenue/subscribers.
Did the Bureau act on Amazon Leo's milestone specifically in the gap the stalled mirror cannot surface?
Resolves whena fixed mirror rescan, or a manual title check of DA-26-924 through roughly DA-26-1000.
Does the Globalstar deal close on its stated path, and does Apple stay? The securities gate is clear. The FCC gate (GN Docket 26-134, pending as of Sep 30) and the HIBLEO-4 condition (Q14) are not.
Resolves whenGN 26-134 action, Q14's resolution, or a disclosure before April 13, 2027.
Does the FCC grant, condition or deny the D2D application? Its comment and opposition deadlines passed with no challenger. Oct 5's reply deadline is the last gate.
Resolves whenIridium, Rocket Lab or Viasat-Space42 opposition over the 1618.725-1621.35 MHz overlap.
What does "more than 20 partners" mean against the seven-partner US indirect channel?
Resolves whenan Amazon disclosure by geography or type.
Does Gen1 have enough per-cell capacity to serve the demand book without contention, the ceiling risk in STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS?
Resolves whenreported contention once JetBlue and Delta installs begin.
Does the HIBLEO-4 program clear the merger's closing condition? The count is resolved at 17 total with 8 launched, but 9 remain unlaunched.
Resolves whena second launch, or a docket action.
Was Farrar's inference correct that SpaceX, Rocket Lab and T-Mobile or Deutsche Telekom were Parties C, A and B in Amazon's S-4 Globalstar-sale account?
Resolves whena fuller read of accession 0001104659-26-089294.
Does the FCC open the 1675-1695/2020-2025 MHz rulemaking Amazon Leo and SpaceX both asked for, and on whose milestone terms?
Resolves whenan NPRM in WT Docket 19-116, or an order on RM-11869. The answer decides whether SpaceX's automatic-termination model becomes the standing US buildout rule.
Complete append-only series — 130 readings, 5 Sept 2023 → 9 Sept 2026. Rows never change once added; the time series is the evidence base. Each row number is a permanent link — click it to copy a link straight to that reading.
| # | Date | Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2019 | Project Kuiper announced | 3,236-sat FCC authorization; Amazon committed $10B+ | public record / priors.md |
| 2 | 2026 | Rebrand Project Kuiper → "Amazon Leo" | consumer/enterprise brand rename | brief 2026-07-02/03 |
| 3 | 2026-01-30 (filed) | FCC first-gen milestone-waiver application | 180 sats launched at filing; self-projected ~700 by Jul 30 2026 (21% of 3,236); cites launch-provider delays/shortages as primary cause | PRIMARYFCC DA 26-553 (primary) |
| 4 | 2026-01 (disclosed) | Additional launches purchased | +10 Falcon 9 (SpaceX) and +12 New Glenn disclosed in Jan 30 filing | WebSearch (SpaceNews); FCC DA 26-553 |
| 5 | 2026-04 (as of) | Deployment count | ~302 production sats across 12 missions since Apr 2025 (~25 sats/month) | PRIMARYECFS comment citing Amazon disclosure — sources/latest/fcc-ecfs-cband-spacex.json |
| 6 | 2026-05-25 | Third-party ECFS comment supporting extension | states Amazon seeks 24-month extension of first-gen milestone Jul 30 2026 → Jul 30 2028 (Call Sign S3051); cites $10B+ launch contracts, 92+ launches secured across 4 providers (ULA, ArianeGroup, Blue Origin, SpaceX) | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-cband-spacex.json (Go Bigger Ventures comment) |
| 7 | 2026-06-05 | FCC Space Bureau order DA 26-553 | conditioned waiver: no cap at Jul 30; post-deadline sats lose spectrum priority 15-20mo; surety bond forfeit if <50%; SpaceX junior-round demotion request rejected | PRIMARYFCC DA 26-553 (primary; Chief Space Bureau Jay Schwarz) |
| 8 | 2026-06-25 | SpaceConnect advocacy coalition formally launched | founding members Amazon (Kuiper), Iridium, Telesat, Globalstar; ED David Redl (ex-NTIA), GC Julie Kearney (ex-FCC Space Bureau chief); Brussels/EU-Space-Act advocacy; SpaceX absent | brief 2026-06-25 (SpaceNews/Via Satellite) |
| 9 | 2026-07-02 | Final Atlas V (LA-08, 29 sats); "continuous service across initial latitudes" claim | 396 sats in orbit; Atlas V retired from Kuiper manifest; paid service targeted "later in 2026" | brief 2026-07-03; launch-bottleneck.md |
| 10 | 2026-07-15 | First commercial/wholesale deal | South Africa — Herotel to resell as "evry" from 2027; beats Starlink (SA licensing pending) | PRIMARYbrief 2026-07-16 ([PRIMARY] aboutamazon.com + 7 outlets) |
| 11 | 2026-07-17 | India market status | Amazon Leo/Kuiper unauthorized in India (no orbital rights secured) vs Starlink 600 Gbps and Jio ~1,600-sat plan | brief 2026-07-18 |
| 12 | 2026-07-19 (T-11d) | Jul 30 milestone tracking, derived | 396/1,618 required (24.5%) vs Amazon's own ~700 (21%) Jan 30 projection — below both | launch-bottleneck.md (derived from FCC DA 26-553 + current count) |
| 13 | 2026-07-20 (confirmed) | DA 26-553 penalty mechanics, exact dates | 50%-by-Jul-30 requirement WAIVED in place (not extended — Amazon's 24-mo extension request not granted as asked); post-Jul-30 sats lose 2020/2021 processing-round spectrum priority until Mar 30 2028 or the 50% milestone, whichever first; shortens to Oct 30 2027 if Amazon proves ≥50% of sats BUILT with launch secured; surety bond forfeit if 50% missed Jul 30; launching may continue | PRIMARYWebSearch cluster (SpaceNews/Payload/GeekWire/The Register, Jun 2026) — FCC PDF + named outlets all proxy-blocked, primary-blocked override applies |
| 14 | 2026-06-05 (primary read 07-27) | Gen1 interim milestone, exact bar | 1,616 satellites by July 30, 2026 (NOT 1,618) — 50% of a 3,232-sat authorization | PRIMARYFCC DA 26-553 ¶3 (full primary text extracted this run) |
| 15 | 2024 (order) | Gen1 authorized total, as modified | reduced from 3,236 → 3,232 satellites | FCC DA 26-553 n.4, citing Gen1 Orbital Parameters Modification, 39 FCC Rcd 2180 (SB 2024) |
| 16 | 2026-06-05 (primary read 07-27) | Final Gen1 milestone | 3,232 satellites by July 30, 2029 — untouched by the waiver | FCC DA 26-553 ¶3 |
| 17 | 2026-06-05 (primary read 07-27) | Priority-loss window, as ordered | 20 months from Jul 30 2026 (to Mar 30 2028) or 50% deployed+operational, whichever first; 15 months (Oct 30 2027) on certification that 50% of sats are CONSTRUCTED and launches PROCURED | FCC DA 26-553 ¶¶22-23 (ordering clauses) |
| 18 | 2026-06-05 (primary read 07-27) | Surety bond, as ordered | forfeit — Amazon did not request a bond waiver and the Bureau declined to waive §25.165 on its own motion; miss = violation of §25.164(b)(1) | FCC DA 26-553 ¶18 |
| 19 | 2026-06-05 (primary read 07-27) | Extension request disposition | neither granted nor denied — Bureau "need not grant or deny" it, having given alternative relief | FCC DA 26-553 ¶19 |
| 20 | 2026-06-05 (primary read 07-27) | Support/opposition split on the waiver | supporters: CCIA, US Chamber of Commerce, ITI Space Enterprise Council, Lexington Institute, Taxpayer Protection Alliance (no satellite operators); sole opponent: SpaceX | FCC DA 26-553 ¶10, nn.37-38 |
| 21 | 2026-02-10 | Amazon Gen2 + Polar authorizations, separate milestones | Gen2 3,212 sats and Polar 1,292 sats; 50% by Feb 10 2032, 100% by Feb 10 2035; V-band added to Gen1 same date | FCC DA 26-553 n.8, and Grant Stamp ICFS SAT-LOA-20211104-00145 / SAT-AMD-20250311-00068 |
| 22 | 2026-07-27 (derived) | Total Amazon LEO authorization across systems | 7,736 satellites (Gen1 3,232 + Gen2 3,212 + Polar 1,292) | derived from FCC DA 26-553 n.8 |
| 23 | 2026-07-27 (as of) | Satellites launched vs in orbit | 398 launched across 15 flights (2023-10-06 through 2026-07-02); 396 production sats in orbit after the 2 deorbited 2023 prototypes | planet4589 GCAT launchlog — sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html (398 KUIP payload rows) |
| 24 | 2026-07-27 (derived) | Milestone shortfall | 396/1,616 = 24.5%; 1,220 satellites short; ~27 Vulcan flights at 45 sats/flight to close | derived from FCC DA 26-553 ¶3 + GCAT count |
| 25 | 2026-04-13 | Amazon-Globalstar acquisition announced | $90.00/share cash (≤40% of shares) or 0.3210 AMZN shares; ~$11.6B; max $110M downward adjustment on missed operational milestones | PRIMARYGlobalstar 8-K, accession 0001140361-26-014528, filed 2026-04-14 (primary) + Ex. 99.1 press release |
| 26 | 2026-04-13 | Globalstar deal closing conditions and outside dates | HSR, antitrust/foreign-investment/satellite-law clearances, no MAE, HIBLEO-4 satellite milestones, Form S-4 effectiveness; target close Apr 13 2027, extendable to Oct 13 2027 then Apr 13 2028 | PRIMARYGlobalstar 8-K accession 0001140361-26-014528 (primary) |
| 27 | 2026-04-13 | Globalstar deal termination fees | Globalstar → Amazon $419.8M (fiduciary-out/alternative deal within 12mo); Amazon → Globalstar $592.1M (regulatory clearances not obtained) | PRIMARYGlobalstar 8-K accession 0001140361-26-014528 (primary) |
| 28 | 2026-04-13 | Apple contract transferred to Amazon | Apple's interests in Globalstar Licensee LLC transfer at closing; prepayment agreement increased ~$468M to ~$1.58B aggregate, service milestones amended; Amazon-Apple agreement covers iPhone 14+ and Apple Watch Ultra 3 Emergency SOS, messaging, roadside assistance | PRIMARYGlobalstar 8-K accession 0001140361-26-014528 + Ex. 99.1 (primary) |
| 29 | 2028 (stated plan) | Amazon next-generation D2D satellite system | Amazon to deploy from 2028, claiming higher spectrum efficiency and speeds than "legacy systems"; Globalstar assets to operate alongside Amazon Leo broadband | Globalstar 8-K Ex. 99.1 press release, 2026-04-13 (company statement, forward-looking) |
| 30 | 2026-04-16 | Globalstar MSS spectrum holdings acquired | 8.725 MHz L-band (1600 MHz) + 16.5 MHz S-band (2.49 GHz); C-band feeder links 159 MHz up / 180 MHz down; ~28 ground-station locations; 24 in-orbit sats; MDA C-3 order (48 + 6 spares) to be honoured | PRIMARYfrankrayal.com, "The Amazon Globalstar Acquisition: Decoding the Strategy for D2D Dominance" (analyst, mirrored in sources/latest/frankrayal.rss) |
| 31 | 2026-04-16 (analyst) | Apple's pre-deal position in Globalstar | ~20% equity stake and a claim to 85% of network capacity, transitioned to the Amazon network under the new agreement | PRIMARYfrankrayal.com (2026-04-16), analyst characterisation — not independently confirmed against Apple/Globalstar filings this run |
| 32 | 2026-07-27 (derived) | MSS spectrum price comparison, $/MHz | Amazon-Globalstar ~$459M/MHz on 25.225 MHz of L+S MSS (deal includes Apple contract, 28 ground stations, 24 sats, terrestrial S-band authority); SpaceX-EchoStar AWS-4/H-block >$425M/MHz; AST-Ligado L-band $13.75M/MHz ($550M / 40 MHz, distressed-estate sale) | derived from Globalstar 8-K + frankrayal.com (2026-04-16) spectrum table |
| 33 | 2026-04-16 (analyst) | SpaceX D2D installed base, for comparison | ~650 direct-to-cell satellites, >6M monthly customers, 27 MNO partners | frankrayal.com (2026-04-16), analyst figures |
| 34 | 2026-05-26 | FCC transfer-of-control application filed | Amazon.com + Globalstar public-interest statement, docket 26-129 (Wireline Competition Bureau), ECFS submission 10526686607557 — document 403-blocked, not read | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-cband-ses.json (ECFS mirror metadata) |
| 35 | 2026-02-19 | Amazon Leo lobbied the Part 100 rulemaking it now benefits from | "Amazon Leo Space Modernization Reply Comments" filed in docket 25-306 (Space Modernization for the 21st Century), adopted as the Part 100 licensing overhaul on 2026-07-22 | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-cband-ses.json (ECFS mirror, submission 1021908287320) |
| 36 | 2026-01-20 | Amazon Leo mmWave/V-band advocacy | UMFUS comments and reply comments filed in docket 25-305 | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-cband-ses.json (ECFS mirror) |
| 37 | 2026-01-06 | Globalstar position Amazon inherits: against SpaceX MSS | Globalstar "Petition to Deny SpaceX NGSO System," docket 25-340 (SpaceX NGSO MSS + SCS application) | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-cband-ses.json (ECFS mirror) |
| 38 | 2026-06-10 | Globalstar position Amazon inherits: 2 GHz/SCS docket | Globalstar opposition filed in docket 23-135 (SpaceX/T-Mobile supplemental coverage from space), same docket as SpaceX's opposition to Sateliot's 2 GHz AFR | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-cband-ses.json (ECFS mirror) |
| 39 | 2026-04-17 | Globalstar position Amazon inherits: market-access reciprocity | Globalstar reply comments in docket 26-48 — the same docket SES Americom filed its 2026-07-22 "Reciprocity Ex Parte" into | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-cband-ses.json (ECFS mirror) |
| 40 | 2025-11 | Rebrand Project Kuiper → "Amazon Leo", corrected date | November 2025, not 2026 as previously carried here | Wikipedia/technology.org/orbitalradar cluster + aboutamazon.com Devices & Services product page |
| 41 | 2025-09-04 | First airline contract | JetBlue — ~75 aircraft (≈¼ of a 300+ fleet) from 2027, replacing GEO capacity; aviation Ka-band terminal to 1 Gbps | JetBlue press release 2025-09-04 (news.jetblue.com) + SpaceNews; aboutamazon.com |
| 42 | 2026-03-31 | Second airline contract, won head-to-head vs Starlink | Delta Air Lines — 500 aircraft from 2028; one purpose-built phased-array antenna per aircraft, 1 Gbps down / 400 Mbps up, gate-to-gate | PRIMARYaboutamazon.com/news/amazon-leo/amazon-leo-delta-in-flight-wifi-2028 (primary) + CNBC 2026-03-31; Via Satellite 2026-03-31 |
| 43 | 2026-04-08 | Enterprise beta live | beta partners include Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone, JetBlue, NASA; three terminal tiers to 1 Gbps | thenextweb.com (2026-04); channelpartnersconference.com (Amazon Leo's Bauer) |
| 44 | 2026 (as of) | US indirect channel program | 7 partners: TSDs Avant, Telarus, Intelisys, Bridgepointe, Innovative Business Solutions; direct selling agents Advantage, Amplix | channelpartnersconference.com, "Amazon Leo's Bauer: 'We are Part of This Channel'" |
| 45 | 2023-09-05 | Telco-wholesale agreements predating Herotel | Vodafone/Vodacom — Kuiper capacity for 4G/5G cellular backhaul in Europe and Africa; Verizon backhaul collaboration announced 2021 | PRIMARYSpaceNews 2023-09-05; Vodafone newsroom (primary); Via Satellite 2023-09-05 |
| 46 | 2026-07-15 | Herotel/"evry", precise scope | Amazon's own framing: "the first Amazon Leo agreement of this kind in Africa" — a wholesale/ISP-reseller deal, not Amazon Leo's first commercial agreement; Amazon needs no ICASA licence of its own under this structure | PRIMARYaboutamazon.com/news/amazon-leo/amazon-leo-south-africa-herotel-evry (primary); techcentral.co.za 2026-07-15 |
| 47 | 2026 (as of) | South Africa competitive asymmetry | Starlink has still not formally applied to ICASA; ICASA has held through 2026 that it cannot accept an EEIP substitute for the 30% B-BBEE ownership rule without an Electronic Communications Act amendment | ITWeb ("No Starlink licence application in SA yet"); TechAfrica News 2026-06-30 |
| 48 | 2026 (guidance) | Amazon Leo cost step, Q2 2026 | ~$1B year-over-year cost increase on satellite manufacturing and launch, hitting Q2 operating income, ahead of a Q3 commercial start | Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky, Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-29 (via transcript coverage) |
| 49 | 2026-04/05 | Jassy's framing of Leo's revenue potential | "The business has a chance to be a very large many-billion-dollar revenue business"; explicit early-AWS capital-intensity parallel | Amazon Q1 2026 earnings call 2026-04-29; 2026 shareholder letter |
| 50 | 2026-07-30 | Amazon Q2 2026 earnings call — same day as the FCC milestone | 2:00pm PT / 5:00pm ET; first public forum in which management must address the missed milestone | PRIMARYaboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-earnings-q2-2026-report (primary) |
| 51 | 2026 (as of) | Consumer service date, slipped | from Jassy's "mid-2026" to "later in 2026"; CFO guides Q3 commercial start; beta service expected US/UK/France/Germany/Canada in 2026 | Via Satellite 2026-04-10; Fierce Network ("Amazon Leo pushes out its commercial service deadline again", headline only — body 403-blocked); Light Reading |
| 52 | 2026 (as of) | Terminal lineup and indicative pricing | three terminals: portable, Leo Pro (reportedly under $400), Leo Ultra (to 1 Gbps); consumer monthly pricing UNANNOUNCED — $100-120/mo figures circulating are third-party estimates, not Amazon guidance | Light Reading; compareinternet.com / satelliteinternet.com (estimates, explicitly not company guidance) |
| 53 | 2026 (contracted) | Launch manifest by vehicle | 80+ missions: Vulcan Centaur 38 (45 sats/flight), Ariane 6 18 (36 sats/flight), Falcon 9 13+ (~24), New Glenn 12+ (48 sats/flight), Atlas V 9 (retired Jul 2) | orbitalradar.com launch-schedule compilation; cross-ref dossiers/launch-bottleneck.md |
| 54 | 2026-02 | Both of Amazon's high-capacity vehicles down | ULA Vulcan grounded (solid-rocket-motor separation issue, Feb 2026); New Glenn NET-2026 after a GS1 booster static-fire explosion | rcrwireless.com 2026-04-21; cross-ref dossiers/launch-bottleneck.md |
| 55 | 2026 (reported) | Third-party launch cost paid by Amazon | $2,600-$7,000/kg to external providers, against SpaceX's internal cost on a reusable fleet | rcrwireless.com 2026-04-21 (secondary, range not independently verified) |
| 56 | 2026 (claimed) | Manufacturing throughput | >15 satellites/week reported 2026 (~65/month); a supporting FCC comment credits Amazon with "scaling manufacturing capabilities to 30 satellites per week" | adgully.com 2026; FCC DA 26-553 n.36 (supporter's characterisation of Amazon's showing) |
| 57 | 2026-07-27 (derived) | Where the bottleneck sits | claimed build rate ~65-130 sats/month vs realised deployment ~25 sats/month over Apr 2025-Jul 2026 — a 2.6-5.2x gap; the constraint is launch, not manufacturing | derived from adgully/DA 26-553 n.36 build rates + GCAT deployment count |
| 58 | 2026 (as of) | Cadence gap vs Starlink, quantified | Starlink placed ~1,000 satellites in orbit in 2026 alone; Amazon Leo has 396 in orbit in total since 2023 | rcrwireless.com 2026-04-21; cross-ref dossiers/launch-bottleneck.md |
| 59 | 2026 (architecture) | Orbital altitude difference | Amazon Leo 590-630 km vs Starlink 340-550 km — larger footprint per satellite, lower capacity density per unit area | rcrwireless.com 2026-04-21 (secondary) |
| 60 | 2026-05-14 | India: filed entity and pending approvals | "Kuiper Services India Private Limited" TRAI consultation submission; DoT GMPCS licence application under examination and IN-SPACe authorization still pending | PRIMARYtrai.gov.in/sites/default/files/2026-05/Amazon_14052026.pdf (primary); BW Businessworld; Communications Today |
| 61 | 2026-07-23 | Farrar's Starlink forecast, on Amazon's D2D prospects | projects $48B Starlink revenue / 46M consumer subs in 2030 (vs DB $72B/82M, Moffett $73B/70M, RBC $101B/100M+, MS $121B/116M); judges "AST and Amazon's offerings are unlikely to match up to what Starlink Mobile V2 will deliver in 2028" | PRIMARYtmfassociates.com, "Forecasting Starlink…", 2026-07-23 (mirrored in sources/latest/tmfassociates.rss) |
| 62 | 2026-03-25 | Farrar's Globalstar-buyer call, wrong | predicted SpaceX would outbid Amazon for Globalstar ("Jay took Amazon's offer to SpaceX and they probably decided to beat it"); Amazon in fact won, announced Apr 13 | tmfassociates.com, "Jay Monroe finally wins his bet on Globalstar…", 2026-03-25 |
| 63 | 2026-07-24 | Kuiper Systems D2D FCC application filed | "Amazon Leo D2D System," File No. SAT-LOA-20260601-00224, up to 5,105 LEO satellites across 5 shells (510km/56.3°, 540km/84°, 560km/58.2°, 570km/73°, 580km/55.7°); 11,045 total orbital slots defined against the 5,105-satellite cap; service links 1.6/2.4 GHz MSS (Globalstar-acquired spectrum), Ka-/V-band feeder + TT&C links; US SCS NOT requested (sought outside the US only); contingent on the Globalstar transaction closing | PRIMARY[INBOX] Amazon Leo D2D Application - Legal Narrative.md + PUBLIC Amazon Leo D2D Application - Exhibit C - Technical Attachment and ODAR.md (Kuiper Systems LLC's own FCC filing, dated 2026-07-24; read in full) |
| 64 | 2026-07-24 | Amazon Leo D2D System debris/disposal design | active deorbit to ≤350km at end of life (natural decay <2 months from there); post-mission disposal success >0.9 per satellite even without preemptive deorbit, company goal ≥99%; computed human casualty risk on reentry <1 in 10,000; collision risk maintained below 1 in 100,000 via active conjunction assessment | PRIMARY[INBOX] PUBLIC Amazon Leo D2D Application - Exhibit C - Technical Attachment and ODAR.md (primary, ODAR section) |
| 65 | 2026-05-26 (correction) | Globalstar transfer-of-control docket, correct number | GN Docket No. 26-134, ICFS File No. ITC-T/C 20260417-00114 (not "docket 26-129" as this dossier previously carried from unread ECFS mirror metadata) | PRIMARY[INBOX] Amazon Leo D2D Application - Legal Narrative.md n.2, quoting the merger application itself (primary) — corrects this dossier's prior row, see SUPERSEDED |
| 66 | 2026-07-30 | Amazon Q2 2026 earnings — Jassy's only Leo comment | "Amazon Leo is close to 400 satellites in orbit, enough to begin initial satellite internet service this year... we already have meaningful revenue commitments from enterprises and government customers, and we have more than 20 partners who will extend the reach." No segment financials, no FCC-milestone or compliance commentary | Amazon Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, 2026-07-30 (Investing.com/Seeking Alpha transcript of the call) |
| 67 | 2026-07-30 (passed) | FCC 50%-deployment deadline lapses with no published compliance action | as of 2026-08-01 (T+2), no FCC public notice, order or enforcement action referencing Amazon Leo's July 30 milestone has been found; DA 26-553's priority-demotion and bond-forfeiture consequences apply by the order's own terms, not by a new Commission act | briefs 2026-07-30T0343Z, 2026-08-01T0342Z (Lane C negatives; fcc-docs-index.json watermark scan, no new DA/FCC order referencing Amazon Leo) |
| 68 | 2026-08-07 (confirmed, T+8) | FCC compliance silence extends | fresh fcc-docs-index.json scan through DA-26-830/FCC-26-54 (released through Aug 7) still shows no order, public notice or enforcement action naming Amazon Leo's milestone compliance | this run, direct index scan (docs.fcc.gov mirror) |
| 69 | 2025-08-05 | NBN Co (Australia) selects Amazon/Project Kuiper for residential LEO broadband — untracked commercial commitment, predates archive | wholesale agreement, 300,000+ premises within NBN's existing satellite footprint, replaces GEO Sky Muster (Sky Muster to keep operating to ~2032 while NBN Co explores its future use); Kuiper service targeted to launch in Australia "from the middle of 2026" | PRIMARYNBN Co press release, nbnco.com.au, 2025-08-05 (primary, WebFetch'd this run); corroborated satellitetoday.com/Via Satellite, same date |
| 70 | 2025-08-25 | Colorado BEAD (Broadband Equity Access and Deployment) award to Amazon Kuiper | $25.3M for 42,252 unserved locations (~$600/location, ~47% of Colorado's total) vs. Starlink's $9.1M for 5,400 locations (~$1,700/location, ~6%) — Kuiper undercuts Starlink on a government per-location basis in this state | broadbandbreakfast.com, "Colorado BEAD Plan Rolls the Dice on Amazon's Project Kuiper," 2025-08-25 (named-byline trade coverage of Colorado's official BEAD plan; WebFetch'd this run) |
| 71 | 2026 (analyst estimate, not gov't-confirmed) | Amazon Kuiper's BEAD footprint nationally | ~219,000 locations across ~19 states; ~$211M total buildout (states ~$145M/69%, Kuiper's own contribution ~$66M/31%); construction "as early as summer 2026" | New Street Research estimate, via WebSearch this run — not independently verified against a government tally |
| 72 | 2026-06-02 (analyst) | Farrar's Amazon Leo Gen1 capacity/terminal-cost skepticism | derives ~2.3M-subscriber global capacity ceiling for the full Gen1 constellation (Analysys Mason 36 Gbps/satellite basis); estimates Amazon terminal production will stay "not much more than 10% of Starlink's production volumes through 2030"; estimates ~$10B total Gen1 launch spend (~$3M/satellite average) vs. an equivalent Starlink launch cost of ~$2B at SpaceX's internal ~$1,000/kg | [INBOX] "LEO consumer broadband report 2026-06-02.md" (Farrar/TMF Associates, proprietary analyst report — estimates, not independently verified this run) |
| 73 | 2026 (as of, undated) | American Airlines chose Starlink over Amazon Leo | reported to be "despite...much lower prices from Amazon Leo"; American had been in talks with Amazon Leo in late 2025 — disconfirms a clean "Amazon wins aviation head-to-heads" read alongside the JetBlue/Delta wins | [INBOX] "Starlink profile 2026-07-22.md" (Farrar/TMF Associates, proprietary analyst report — characterization, not independently verified this run) |
| 74 | 2026-07-31 (filed) | Amazon's own Form S-4 for the Globalstar merger | Amazon.com Inc. registration statement for up to 19,161,370 shares at the 0.3210 exchange ratio; File No. 333-297911, accession 0001104659-26-089294 — first evidence of an Amazon-side EDGAR footprint on this deal (Amazon's CIK 0001018724 was added to this desk's EDGAR mirror watchlist 2026-08-09; `sources/latest/edgar-amazon.json` is now live) | PRIMARYSEC EDGAR, sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000110465926089294/ (primary, WebFetch'd this run) |
| 75 | 2026-08-05 (analyst) | Farrar's read of Amazon's S-4 "Background of the Merger" — bid history and rival bidders | Amazon's own bid rose from $47.50/share (Oct 16, 2025, ~$6B) to $90/share cash-or-stock (Dec 1, 2025, max 40% cash); three other parties bid $4.3B-$9.5B between Aug-Dec 2025 (anonymized in the filing as Parties A/B/C); Farrar infers Party C (SpaceX-like bid structure, collapsed when it failed to secure Apple's post-closing commercial agreement) was most likely SpaceX, Party A most likely Rocket Lab, Party B most likely T-Mobile/Deutsche Telekom — inference, not filing-confirmed identity | PRIMARYtmfassociates.com, "Who showed up to Globalstar's party?", 2026-08-05 (mirrored sources/latest/tmfassociates.rss); underlying primary is Amazon's S-4 (accession 0001104659-26-089294), not independently re-read paragraph-by-paragraph this run given document size |
| 76 | 2026-08-06 (filed) | Globalstar Q2 2026 10-Q — first primary post-signing read | headline merger terms unchanged (termination fees $419.8M/$592.1M; outside date Apr 13 2027, extendable to Oct 2027 then Apr 2028); Apple-linked milestone downward-adjustment cap shrunk from a stated max of $110M to ~$97M "as of the date of this Report" on "achievement of certain operational milestones"; "certain governmental authorizations relating to the C-3 System have not yet been received" as of filing | PRIMARYGlobalstar 10-Q, accession 0001366868-26-000039, filed 2026-08-06, period 2026-06-30 (primary, sources/latest/edgar-docs/000136686826000039.htm) |
| 77 | 2026-08-06 (disclosed) | HIBLEO-4 replacement satellite launch date, first primary disclosure | first set of replacement satellites (17 of up to 26 total, MDA Space-built under a Feb 2022 procurement agreement, $329.3M amended contract price) "currently scheduled for August 2026" launch via SpaceX; second set "later in 2026"; the Globalstar merger's closing is conditioned on "certain milestones relating to the launch and operations of the HIBLEO-4 replacement satellites" — a live, dated tripwire this month, distinct from and unrelated to Amazon Leo's own Vulcan/New Glenn cadence | PRIMARYGlobalstar 10-Q, accession 0001366868-26-000039 (primary) |
| 78 | 2026-08-06 (adopted)/08-07 (released) | FCC unlicensed D2D NPRM names the Amazon-Globalstar deal in its rulemaking text | FCC 26-51 (ET Docket 26-169) background section cites Amazon's Globalstar acquisition and Rocket Lab's Iridium acquisition together as evidence of "more than $40 billion" coursing through D2D dealmaking; proposes opening >200MHz of Part 15 unlicensed spectrum (2400-2483.5/5725-5850 MHz) for D2D satellite links, no MSS licence required | PRIMARYFCC 26-51 (primary, sources/latest/fcc-docs/FCC-26-51.txt; docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-423135A1.pdf) |
| 79 | 2026-08-06 (filed) | Globalstar Q2 2026 actual results, first primary print since signing | revenue $64.8M ($60.0M service + $4.8M equipment); net loss $26.5M (vs. net income $19.2M Q2 2025); cash $409.8M (down from $447.5M at 2025-12-31) | PRIMARYGlobalstar 8-K + Ex-99.1, accession 0001366868-26-000037, filed 2026-08-06 (primary; cross-cited via dossiers/industry-consolidation.md's fuller 08-09 read) |
| 80 | 2026-07-31 (filed) | Amazon-Globalstar merger consideration, exact mechanics | cash election is a VWAP-based exchange ratio — 0.3210 shares baseline against a $280.38 Amazon reference price, capped at $90/share of value; no Globalstar shareholder vote required (Thermo Funding II + affiliates delivered 57.6% written consent 2026-04-13); close guided to 2027 | PRIMARYAmazon Form S-4, accession 0001104659-26-089294 (primary; cross-cited via dossiers/industry-consolidation.md's fuller 08-09 read) |
| 81 | 2026-07-24 (filed), re-read 08-11 | Amazon Leo D2D application, exact non-US SCS frequency range | requests non-US supplemental-coverage-from-space authority across 1427-2690MHz — wider than the 1.6/2.4GHz Globalstar-band service links alone, and the specific range that overlaps the EU's 2000-2020/2180-2200MHz 2 GHz MSS band directly | PRIMARY[INBOX] Amazon Leo D2D Application - Legal Narrative.md (already-cited primary, re-mined this run; cross-cited via dossiers/mss-2ghz-spectrum.md) |
| 82 | 2026-07-24 (filed; re-read 2026-10-06) | Amazon Leo D2D application includes extended L-band, outside the US only | The application's service-link table adds 1518-1525 MHz downlink and 1668-1675 MHz uplink for use outside the United States only, alongside the Globalstar 1.6/2.4 GHz links. Exhibit C repeats the request as MSS authority "consistent with local laws". The filing names no licensee or partner for these bands. Farrar identifies them as the extended L-band Viasat controls in ITU Regions 1 and 3. He reads the request as a route for Amazon to seek Viasat's L-band now that Rocket Lab looks set to win Iridium. That link to Viasat is analyst inference, not stated in the filing | PRIMARY[PRIMARY] [INBOX] Amazon Leo D2D Application - Legal Narrative.md, Table 2 (Service Links), and PUBLIC Amazon Leo D2D Application - Exhibit C - Technical Attachment and ODAR.md, fn. 3 (Kuiper Systems LLC, SAT-LOA-20260601-00224); Viasat attribution and read: [INBOX] Note on WSBW conference 2026-09-17.md (Farrar/TMF, converted 2026-09-28) |
| 83 | 2026-08-11 (confirmed, T+12) | FCC compliance silence extends further | fresh fcc-docs-index.json scan through DA-26-839 (released through Aug 11) still shows no order, public notice or enforcement action naming Amazon Leo's milestone compliance; planet4589 GCAT KUIP count unchanged at 398 launched/396 in orbit, no launch since Jul 2 | this run, direct index scan (docs.fcc.gov mirror) + sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html |
| 84 | 2026-08-14 (filed) | Amazon-Globalstar merger S-4/A amendment | HIBLEO-4 initial-launch guidance re-dated to "the third quarter of 2026" (was "previously expected to occur in May 2026"); close still guided to 2027; Apple C-3-milestone cap unchanged at "approximately $97 million"; termination fees and exchange ratio unchanged from the original S-4 | PRIMARYAmazon Form S-4/A, accession 0001104659-26-096195, filed 2026-08-14 (primary, WebFetch'd this run) |
| 85 | 2026-08-16 | HIBLEO-4 replacement-satellite launch fires | SpaceX Falcon 9 (01:12Z) launched Globalstar's HIBLEO-4 replacement satellites; Globalstar's own same-day release states "all 8" launched successfully, reached their intended orbital planes and are under Globalstar's command and control — the release does not mention a second launch or the Amazon merger anywhere in its text | PRIMARYGlobalstar press release, globenewswire.com, 2026-08-16 (primary, WebFetch'd this run); cross-check @planet4589 X post 2026-08-16T19:00Z independently logging "eight" satellites (weak-signal, corroborating) |
| 86 | 2026-08-16 (derived) | HIBLEO-4 satellite-count reconciliation gap, unresolved | Globalstar's own 10-Q states its 2022 MDA procurement agreement covers 17 satellites (of up to 26 FCC-authorized) to replace HIBLEO-4; its Aug 16 release calls the same-week launch "all 8" with no reference to a remaining tranche — two of Globalstar's own primary documents do not reconcile on the program's total scope, and the merger agreement's own closing condition (per the Aug 14 S-4/A) is worded as "certain milestones," not a specific satellite count | derived from Globalstar 10-Q (accession 0001366868-26-000039, already cited) + Globalstar press release 2026-08-16 + Amazon S-4/A (accession 0001104659-26-096195), all WebFetch'd/re-read this run |
| 87 | 2026-08-13/14 | "Amazon LEO for Government" joins a DoD relay-satellite vendor pool | one of five vendors (with Rocket Lab, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, York Space Systems) awarded a $12M OTA each for optical laser-comm "Space Exchange Point" relay-satellite interoperability demos feeding the SpaceX-built $2.9B Space Data Network Backbone; below the DoD materiality floor individually, but Amazon's first named entry into this specific program under its own government-services brand | Air & Space Forces Magazine, 2026-08-14 (reporting an Aug 13 announcement); DefenseScoop, 2026-08-13 |
| 88 | 2026-08-16 (confirmed, T+17) | FCC compliance silence extends further | fresh fcc-docs-index.json scan through watermark DA-26-861/FCC-26-55 (scanned 2026-08-16T23:11:55Z) still shows no order, public notice or enforcement action naming Amazon Leo's milestone compliance; planet4589 GCAT KUIP count unchanged at 398 launched/396 in orbit, no launch since Jul 2 | this run, direct index scan (docs.fcc.gov mirror) + sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html |
| 89 | 2026-08-16 (published 18:31Z) | HIBLEO-4 replacement-satellite count, manufacturer's own account | Rocket Lab's own release — its $143M MDA Space subcontract to build the satellites — states the Aug 16 launch's 8 satellites are "the first batch in a constellation of 17 platforms"; contradicts Globalstar's own "All 8" framing published ~5 hours earlier the same day; restores the original 17-total, two-launch figure this dossier could not source directly for weeks | PRIMARYRocket Lab press release, globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/16/3345790, 2026-08-16T18:31Z (primary; surfaced via briefs/2026-08-17T1637Z.md [S2]) |
| 90 | 2026-08-17 (confirmed, T+18) | FCC compliance silence extends further | fresh fcc-docs-index.json scan through watermark DA-26-865/FCC-26-55 (scanned 2026-08-17T20:50:58Z) still shows no order, public notice or enforcement action naming Amazon Leo's milestone compliance; planet4589 GCAT KUIP count unchanged at 398 launched/396 in orbit, no launch since Jul 2 | this run, direct index scan (docs.fcc.gov mirror) + sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html |
| 91 | 2026-08-18 (released) | FCC accepts the D2D application for filing, sets its first pleading cycle | DA 26-866 accepts SAT-LOA-20260601-00224 (Call Sign S00917) for filing; comments/petitions to deny due 2026-09-17, oppositions/responses due 2026-09-28, replies due 2026-10-05; reconfirms Amazon Leo is not requesting US SCS authority at this stage | PRIMARYFCC DA 26-866 (primary, docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-26-866A1.txt, WebFetch'd this run) |
| 92 | 2026-08-18 (filed) | Amazon's Globalstar-merger S-4 declared effective; final joint information statement/prospectus mailed | Form 424B3, accession 0001104659-26-098339 (Amazon-side) and Globalstar's own DEFM14C, accession 0001140361-26-033587, both filed same day; terms unchanged from the Aug 14 S-4/A (cash $90.00/share less any per-share adjustment, or a VWAP-set exchange ratio baselined at 0.3210 shares against a $280.38 reference price, capped at $90/share of value; termination fees $419.832M Globalstar-to-Amazon / $592.071M Amazon-to-Globalstar); no further Globalstar stockholder vote required (57.6% written consent already delivered Apr 13, 2026); "Amazon and Globalstar currently expect the mergers to be completed in 2027" | PRIMARYSEC EDGAR, Amazon 424B3 accession 0001104659-26-098339 + Globalstar DEFM14C accession 0001140361-26-033587 (primary, both WebFetch'd this run) |
| 93 | 2026-08-18 (disclosed, final prospectus) | HIBLEO-4 launch timing tied explicitly to the Apple milestone clock, not just the merger-closing condition | initial HIBLEO-4 replacement-satellite launch (previously guided "May 2026") "is currently anticipated to occur during the third quarter of 2026"; the prospectus states this timing "may have an impact on Globalstar's ability to achieve certain of the operational milestones by the applicable deadline dates as set forth in the letter agreement with" Apple ("Customer"); parties "do not currently plan to provide further updates" on milestone achievement until the election-form mailing | PRIMARYAmazon 424B3, accession 0001104659-26-098339 (primary, WebFetch'd this run) — corroborated by Globalstar's own Aug 18 DEFM14C per briefs/2026-08-19T0343Z.md |
| 94 | 2026-08-22 (confirmed, T+23) | FCC compliance silence extends further | fresh fcc-docs-index.json scan through watermark DA-26-877/FCC-26-55 (mirror fetched 2026-08-22T20:45:47Z) still shows no order, public notice or enforcement action naming Amazon Leo's 50%-milestone compliance; planet4589 GCAT KUIP count unchanged at 398 launched/396 in orbit, no launch since Jul 2 — five quiet days (08-18 through 08-22) with zero new Amazon Leo/Globalstar item in any brief | this run, direct index scan (docs.fcc.gov mirror) + sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html |
| 95 | 2026-04-23 (issued; read in full this run) | FCC dismisses SpaceX's and Kepler's bids for access to Globalstar's exclusive Big LEO spectrum | DA 26-398 dismisses "with prejudice" SpaceX's Gen2/D2C requests and Kepler's market-access petition to operate in the 1610-1626.5/2483.5-2500 MHz "Big LEO" band — Globalstar's exclusive spectrum — both inside and outside the US, and separately dismisses AST's bid for the 2000-2020/2180-2200 MHz band outside the US and terminates the EchoStar 2 GHz inquiry as moot; issued by Space Bureau Chief Jay Schwarz, the same official who later issued DA 26-553 and DA 26-866; ¶53 n.53 cites the just-announced (Apr 14) Amazon-Globalstar acquisition press release as part of the record | PRIMARYFCC DA 26-398 (primary, docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-26-398A1.pdf, WebFetch'd this run) |
| 96 | 2026-08-07 (primary, re-mined) | Globalstar/HIBLEO-4 replacement-constellation manufacturing status, from the builder | MDA's CFO states H1 2026 revenue on "the Globalstar next-generation LEO constellation" came from suppliers "delivering components, subsystems," now "transition[ing] gradually to the assembly, integration and testing phase" in H2 2026 — first primary account of where the still-unlaunched replacement satellites sit in production | PRIMARY[INBOX] MDA Space Ltd._Earnings Call_2026-08-07_English.md (primary transcript; already logged 08-09 for its Telesat/SPACERAN content, not mined for this detail until now) |
| 97 | 2026-07-22 (analyst report; re-mined 08-23) | Amazon Leo's national BEAD footprint, a second and more specific figure | Farrar/TMF's "Profile of Starlink" cites broadbandbreakfast.com for national BEAD totals of $311M for 415,000 locations (Amazon Leo) vs. $733.5M for 427,000 locations (Starlink) — a different, more specific pairing than the desk's prior New Street Research estimate (~$211M/~219,000 locations, [logged above](#tracked-series)); "some of these locations are now being withdrawn" per the same source; the primary broadbandbreakfast.com article is paywalled beyond its lede and not independently confirmed this run | [INBOX] Starlink profile 2026-07-22.md (Farrar/TMF Associates, proprietary analyst report citing broadbandbreakfast.com — estimate, not independently verified this run) |
| 98 | 2026-08-23 (confirmed, T+24) | FCC compliance silence extends further | fresh fcc-docs-index.json scan (mirror fetched 2026-08-23T20:46:04Z) shows the watermark unchanged at DA-26-877/FCC-26-55 — zero new FCC documents released at all since the prior scan — still no order, public notice or enforcement action naming Amazon Leo's 50%-milestone compliance; planet4589 GCAT KUIP count unchanged at 398 launched/396 in orbit | this run, direct index scan (docs.fcc.gov mirror) + sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html |
| 99 | 2026-08-28 (confirmed, T+29) | FCC compliance silence extends further | fresh fcc-docs-index.json scan (mirror fetched 2026-08-30T00:55:10Z) shows the watermark advanced to DA-26-923/FCC-26-60 (released through Aug 28) — none of the newly-released documents name Amazon Leo's 50%-milestone compliance; planet4589 GCAT KUIP count still unchanged at 398 launched/396 in orbit, no launch since Jul 2 | this run, direct index scan (docs.fcc.gov mirror) + sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html |
| 100 | 2026-09-07 (confirmed, T+39) | FCC compliance silence extends further | fresh fcc-docs-index.json scan (mirror fetched 2026-09-07T20:33:00Z) shows the document watermark still capped at DA-26-923/FCC-26-60 (released through Aug 28) — ten straight scan days with no FCC document of any kind released past that date, let alone one naming Amazon Leo's milestone; planet4589 GCAT KUIP count still unchanged at 398 launched/396 in orbit, no launch since Jul 2 | direct index scan (docs.fcc.gov mirror) + sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html; corroborated by briefs/2026-08/2026-08-31T0341Z.md through briefs/2026-09/2026-09-07T0343Z.md Lane A/C negatives |
| 101 | 2026-08-31 (filed) | Amazon Leo's third filing in the FCC's GSO Reference Links proceeding | Kuiper Systems LLC filed "Amazon Leo GSO Reference Links Ex Parte" in docket 25-157 ("Modernizing Spectrum Sharing for Satellite Broadband"), following its own Jun 29 Comments and Jul 13 Reply Comments in the same docket; SES itself filed Comments there Jun 30, 2026; content unread — 403-blocked at every path tried | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-cband-ses.json (ECFS mirror metadata; filing dated 2026-08-31, disseminated 2026-09-01) |
| 102 | 2026-09-02/03 (filed) | Amazon Leo and SpaceX file dueling ex parte letters on 1675-1680MHz/2020-2025MHz spectrum | Amazon Leo filed Sep 2 in docket 19-116 ("Allocation and Service Rules for the 1675-1680 MHz Band") and RM-11869 (petition to add MSS allocation at 2020-2025MHz for small satellites); SpaceX filed Sep 3 in the same two dockets plus RM-12020 (Qualcomm's "Sidelink" petition for 1675-1695MHz/5350-5470MHz); a spectrum front neither company had contested in this dossier's record before; content unread — 403-blocked at every path tried | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-cband-spacex.json (ECFS mirror metadata) |
| 103 | 2026-09-01 (checked) | Globalstar transfer-of-control docket, confirmed still pending | GN Docket No. 26-134 (Globalstar-to-Amazon transfer of control) remains unapproved — the contingency still gating the D2D application's DA 26-866 pleading cycle | cross-cited via [mss-2ghz-spectrum](dossiers/mss-2ghz-spectrum)'s 2026-09-01 TRACKED SERIES check (fcc.gov/transaction/amazon-globalstar) |
| 104 | 2026-07-17 | Amazon-Globalstar HSR waiting period expired | the deal remains subject to FCC and international merger-control clearances; company statement: "actively engaged with remaining regulatory authorities" | PRIMARYGlobalstar Q2 2026 earnings release (EX-99.1), 8-K accession 0001366868-26-000037, filed 2026-08-06 (primary) — folded in from the compressed "Amazon Leo (fka Kuiper) constellation buildout" thread rationale at tracking/thread-rationale-overflow-2026-09-04.md |
| 105 | 2026-08-31 (filed; read in full 2026-09-08) | Amazon Leo's docket 25-157 position, characterized | argues the Bureau's "focused proceeding" must not reopen the selection criteria the Commission already adopted: keep the GSO reference-link database "representative—not exhaustive"; strike links with no identifiable operator and links located outside the US; reject Viasat's bid to grow the Ka-band set from the Commission's 328-link baseline to the 576 links Viasat proposed; reject adding earth stations in motion; reject mandating the ITU Rec. S.1428 antenna pattern; require every link to name the GSO operator responsible for it | PRIMARYKuiper Systems LLC ex parte (Emily Hsu), ECFS submission 26110074085, SB Docket 25-157, dated 2026-08-31 (primary; files.fcc.gov copy retrieved 2026-09-08 through the ECFS single-filing-lookup endpoint after every generic path 403'd) |
| 106 | 2026-08-31 (filed) | Amazon Leo rebuts SES by name and endorses SpaceX in docket 25-157 | n.29 quotes SES's Aug 14 ex parte ("GSO reference links should not be tied to a particular operator or satellite") and answers that untethering links from operators "would make meaningful coordination impossible" and would let "GSO operators with no stake in the affected service" block coordination; n.31 rejects SES's Reply call for the S.1428 pattern; the letter approvingly quotes SpaceX's Aug 18 ex parte urging the Bureau to "reject[] nonconforming GSO submissions that would collapse the new sharing framework from within" | PRIMARYKuiper Systems LLC ex parte, ECFS submission 26110074085 (primary) |
| 107 | 2025-07-28 through 2026-09-01 | Amazon Leo's docket 25-157 filing history, corrected | nine Kuiper Systems/Amazon Leo filings beginning with EPFD Comments on 2025-07-28, not "three times since June" as this dossier previously carried: Comments 2025-07-28, erratum plus revised Comments 2025-08-23, Reply 2025-08-28, EPFD ex parte letter 2026-01-29, Astranis ex parte 2026-04-28, GSO Reference Links Comments 2026-06-29, Reply Comments 2026-07-13, Opposition to DIRECTV's Petition for Reconsideration 2026-07-21, GSO Reference Links ex parte 2026-08-31 | PRIMARYFCC ECFS proceeding query on docket 25-157 (publicapi.fcc.gov, retrieved 2026-09-08) — corrects this dossier's prior claim, see SUPERSEDED |
| 108 | 2026-09-01 (filed; read in full 2026-09-08) | Amazon Leo's 1675-1695/2020-2025 MHz ex parte, characterized | urges the FCC and NTIA to open an NPRM covering the full 1675-1695 MHz band and 2020-2025 MHz — 25 MHz in total — for D2D and "other advanced commercial wireless services"; records that NTIA identified 1675-1680 MHz as the first One Big Beautiful Bill Act reallocation band on 2026-02-26; argues 2020-2025 MHz has "remained almost entirely unused in the United States for over two decades," holds no federal incumbent and no commercial licensee, sits between "SpaceX's 2000-2020 MHz uplink authorization" and the TT&C uplink band starting at 2025 MHz, and is already MSS-allocated in the ITU Region 2 table | PRIMARYKuiper Systems LLC ex parte (Michael J. Carlson), ECFS submission 26110074748, WT Docket 19-116 and RM-11869, dated 2026-09-01 (primary) |
| 109 | 2026-09-03 (filed; read in full 2026-09-08) | SpaceX's answering letter on the same bands — agreement on supply, attack on the milestone regime | backs opening 1675-1680, 1680-1695 and 2020-2025 MHz for D2D, then urges the Commission to attach "technology-neutral, rapid milestones consistent with the precedent set in the SpaceX/EchoStar and Grain orders" (DA 26-471, DA 26-653) — 2-year, 4-year and 9-year SINR, uplink-throughput and spectral-efficiency tests, final deadlines accelerated by one or two years on a miss, and "automatic license termination for failure to meet final obligations" — and to "launch a rulemaking to make this model a permanent fixture of the Commission's regulations" | PRIMARYSpace Exploration Technologies Corp. letter (Alison Minea) plus Attachment A, ECFS submission 26110075446, WT Docket 19-116, RM-12020 and RM-11869, dated 2026-09-03 (primary) |
| 110 | 2026-04-23 | FCC's own D2D deal-flow figure, as Amazon Leo cites it | "more than $28 billion in deal flow across at least 130 megahertz of spectrum" over 18 months | FCC DA 26-398 ¶1 and FCC news release DOC-420983A1 (2026-04-23), quoted in Amazon Leo's 2026-09-01 ex parte |
| 111 | 2026-03-24 (filed) | ITIF comment on Amazon's milestone-waiver application, a think-tank filer DA 26-553 does not name | argues against "blunt enforcement action, such as capping the size of a constellation," citing spaceport and range constraints "beyond the control of any single operator" — but also sets out the Commission's full anti-warehousing remedy menu (license modification or cancellation to the extent of undeployed capacity, surety-bond forfeiture, preclusion from re-applying for the forfeited spectrum, pushing undeployed satellites into a later processing round) and urges consistency in picking one; names the waiver application's ICFS file numbers SAT-MOD-20210806-00095 and SAT-MOD-20260129-00065, Call Sign S3051 | PRIMARYITIF Comments (Ellis Scherer, Policy Analyst), www2.itif.org/2026-amazon-leo-extension.pdf, dated 2026-03-24 (primary) |
| 112 | 2026-02-04 | First AT&T commercial agreement, previously untracked here | Amazon's own release: "AT&T will also collaborate with Amazon Leo, Amazon's low Earth orbit satellite network to provide internet connectivity services to AT&T, enabling AT&T to broaden its connectivity capabilities and deliver fixed broadband services to business customers in areas where such services are needed"; no financial terms and no timing disclosed | PRIMARYpress.aboutamazon.com, "AT&T, AWS, and Amazon Leo Collaborate to Accelerate Modernization of Nation's Connectivity Infrastructure," 2026-02-04 (primary) |
| 113 | 2026-09-08 | AT&T Business expands the Amazon Leo agreement into a managed converged offer | Amazon Leo becomes a managed connectivity layer inside AT&T's fiber/5G architecture for enterprise and public-sector customers, with AWS-delivered managed services; AT&T's Shawn Hakl: "AT&T is uniquely positioned to provide that reliability by bringing together three critical network layers — fiber, 5G, and Low Earth Orbit satellite — into a single managed architecture"; no pricing, no availability date and no disclosed volume, AT&T noting 98% of its current traffic runs on wireless and fiber and that details follow "in the coming months" | PRIMARYVia Satellite (Rachel Jewett), 2026-09-08T19:25Z, mirrored in sources/latest/viasatellite.rss; independently bylined SDxCentral report (Dan Meyer), same date |
| 114 | 2026-04-19 | New Glenn flew inside H1 2026, for a competitor rather than Amazon Leo | NG3 launched AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird SM007 on the vehicle's third flight — Amazon Leo has still flown zero New Glenn missions, and the vehicle was grounded afterwards by the NG3 upper-stage mishap and then the May 28 LC-36 pad explosion; corrects this dossier's "grounded or unflown through H1 2026" framing, see SUPERSEDED | planet4589 GCAT launchlog, sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html (2026-085A payload row); full mechanics in dossiers/launch-bottleneck.md |
| 115 | 2026-08-06/07 | Vulcan's first Amazon Leo mission — hardware exercised, no date set | ULA rolled a Vulcan carrying the new LEO-optimized Centaur V (35 feet, "approximately six feet shorter and carries a third less propellant than the high energy variant") to SLC-41 and completed a wet dress rehearsal; "A launch date has not been established"; the February 2026 GEM 63XL SRB anomaly investigation remains unresolved, and the "third quarter of 2026" framing for this mission comes from trade coverage rather than a ULA commitment | PRIMARYSpace Coast Daily 2026-08-07; ULA blog "Vulcan: New Centaur V version readies for Amazon Leo," 2026-06-02 (primary, quoted); Aviation Week "ULA Completes LEO-Optimized Vulcan Wet Dress" (headline only, paywalled); cross-ref dossiers/launch-bottleneck.md |
| 116 | 2026-09-08 (confirmed, T+40) | FCC compliance silence extends further | fresh fcc-docs-index.json scan (mirror fetched 2026-09-08T20:33:53Z) shows the watermark still capped at DA-26-923/FCC-26-60 (released through Aug 28) — eleven straight scan days with no FCC document of any kind released past that date, none naming Amazon Leo's 50%-milestone compliance; planet4589 GCAT KUIP count unchanged at 398 launched/396 in orbit, no launch since Jul 2; Amazon and Globalstar EDGAR records show nothing beyond routine Form 4/144 since Amazon's Aug 18 424B3 | direct index scan (docs.fcc.gov mirror) + sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html + sources/latest/edgar-amazon.json and edgar-globalstar.json; corroborated by briefs/2026-09/2026-09-08T0341Z.md and briefs/2026-09/2026-09-08T1521Z.md Lane C negatives |
| 117 | 2026-09-09 | Amazon Leo grows Ariane 64 order to 24 | a 10-vehicle Arianespace contract announced at France's International Space Summit adds six Ariane 64 missions to Amazon Leo's existing 18, raising its total to 24 through 2031; the same contract gives Eutelsat's OneWeb two Ariane 64 launches and Korea's KT-Sat one; Arianespace states it has already flown three Ariane 6 missions for Amazon Leo in 2026, deploying 100 satellites | Via Satellite (Rachel Jewett), satellitetoday.com/launch/2026/09/09/amazon-leo-orders-6-more-ariane-64-launches-from-arianespace, corroborated same-day by SatNews and Satellite Evolution naming Arianespace's own announcement as the underlying source (brief 2026-09-10T0342Z) |
| 118 | 2026-09-18 (confirmed, T+50) | FCC compliance silence extends further | fresh fcc-docs-index.json scan (mirror fetched 2026-09-18T20:33:47Z) shows the watermark still capped at DA-26-923/FCC-26-60 (released through Aug 28) — twenty-one straight scan days with no FCC document of any kind released past that date, none naming Amazon Leo's 50%-milestone compliance; planet4589 GCAT KUIP count unchanged at 398 launched/396 in orbit, no launch since Jul 2; git history of the mirror shows this exact watermark across every source-mirror snapshot since 2026-09-15, a duration long enough to warrant checking whether the mirror itself has stalled rather than the FCC's own document flow, [flagged in ANALYTIC STANCE](#analytic-stance) | direct index scan (docs.fcc.gov mirror) + sources/latest/planet4589-launchlog.html; git log of sources/latest/fcc-docs-index.json |
| 119 | 2026-09-20 (confirmed) | FCC compliance-silence mirror artifact confirmed | fcc-docs-index.json's own internal watermark counter jumped from {DA-26:923, FCC-26:60} to {DA-26:5423, FCC-26:960} between the Sep 18 and Sep 20 scans with zero new documents added to its saved-document list, which stayed capped at DA-26-923 (Aug 28); a direct docs.fcc.gov fetch of DA-26-924A1/DA-26-950A1/DA-26-1000A1 returned real PDF content, while DA-26-1500A1/DA-26-2000A1/DA-26-3000A1 all returned the FCC's own "document...is invalid" 404 text — real DA-26 numbering continued advancing past Aug 28 at a normal pace, so the FCC's document flow was not frozen; only the mirror's saved copy of it was | direct WebFetch of docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-26-{924,950,1000,1500,2000,3000}A1.pdf; sources/latest/fcc-docs-index.json (scanned_at 2026-09-20T20:33:03Z) |
| 120 | 2026-09-11 (released) | FCC Space Bureau updates the docket 25-157 GSO reference-link database, largely on Amazon's terms | DA 26-973 adopts a full replacement Ka-band reference-link set that Kuiper Systems proposed, covering every authorized GSO operator (Amazon Comments at 5, Appendix); removes legacy and non-US links over SES's objection that they merited deference (SES Reply at 3, 14-15), crediting Amazon's and SpaceX's argument instead; sets the non-ACM carrier-to-noise protection threshold at SpaceX's proposed 9.5dB rather than SES's requested 12.6dB; declines "broader changes to the dataset or selection criteria," preserving the "representative, not exhaustive" standard Amazon's Aug 31 ex parte argued for (cited at n.36); keeps the 25-degree minimum-elevation-angle criterion SES and Hispasat had opposed | PRIMARYFCC DA 26-973 (primary, docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-26-973A1.pdf, WebFetch'd and read in full this run) — not yet absorbed into [c-band-spectrum](dossiers/c-band-spectrum), the docket's own-mechanics owner per dockets.md |
| 121 | 2026-09-23 (filed) | Amazon Leo ex parte in the FCC's "Satellite Spectrum Abundance" proceeding, a week before the Commission's vote | Kuiper Systems LLC filing spanning WT/GN Docket 25-180 and four related dockets; content unread, 403-blocked at every path tried | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-docket-25-180.json (id_submission 26110077838, disseminated 2026-09-23) |
| 122 | 2026-09-30 (adopted) | FCC opens over 1,000MHz of new satellite spectrum at 12.7GHz and 42GHz | adopted at the Sept 30 Open Meeting with companion proposals for a further 1,175MHz of Ku-/Ka-band and new D-band allocations; order text unpublished as of this check; available to every FSS operator including Amazon Leo, not an Amazon-specific grant | brief 2026-10/2026-10-01T0352Z.md [S1] (satellitetoday.com, radioworld.com, rbr.com, teslanorth.com, cross-corroborated) |
| 123 | 2026-09-17 (analyst; converted 2026-09-28) | Amazon named as "Party A", the losing bidder for Iridium | Farrar reports "from multiple sources" that Party A, the main rival to Rocket Lab in Iridium's sale process, was Amazon. This corrects TMF's own August blog post, which had guessed a private-equity buyer. Farrar notes Amazon was unwilling to raise its offer once Iridium's share price jumped after the Globalstar deal. Analyst-sourced, not confirmed against any filing that names Amazon | PRIMARY[INBOX] Note on WSBW conference 2026-09-17.md (Farrar/TMF Associates, converted 2026-09-28); the filing's Party A anonymization is in Rocket Lab's Iridium prospectus, per the same note |
| 124 | 2026-09-03 (reported; relayed 2026-09-17) | Blue Origin hires Amazon Leo engineers for TeraWave | Bloomberg reported Blue Origin "has poached at least 47 veterans of the Amazon Leo satellite venture in the last year" for its TeraWave satcom project. Farrar adds that this has raised concerns over whether Blue Origin could use Amazon's proprietary technology. Single-sourced to Bloomberg, relayed by an analyst; Amazon and Blue Origin have not commented in any source on file | [INBOX] Note on WSBW conference 2026-09-17.md (Farrar/TMF Associates, converted 2026-09-28), citing Bloomberg 2026-09-03, bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-03/bezos-blue-origin-has-poached-dozens-of-amazon-satellite-engineers |
| 125 | 2026-09-23 (announced) | Amazon Leo x UZ-SAT Uzbekistan distribution deal | announced at the Tashkent International Investment Forum; a regional reseller agreement with no disclosed dollar terms, satellite count or exclusivity, smaller in scope than the AT&T or Herotel agreements | Amazon's own newsroom + spacewatch.global, Engadget, Trend.Az (2026-09-23); brief 2026-09/2026-09-23T1522Z.md |
| 126 | 2026-09-24 (filed) | Amazon Leo's tenth docket 25-157 filing since 2025, a further GSO Reference Links ex parte | filed two weeks after DA 26-973's release; content unread, 403-blocked at every path tried | PRIMARYsources/latest/fcc-ecfs-docket-25-157.json (id_submission 26110078171, disseminated 2026-09-25) |
| 127 | 2026-09-28 (passed) | D2D application's oppositions/responses deadline passes with no challenger | DA 26-866's Sep 17 comment/petition-to-deny and Sep 28 opposition/response deadlines both pass with no SES, Lynk, Elveo, SpaceConnect, Iridium or Rocket Lab filing identified; the Oct 5 reply deadline remains open | briefs 2026-09-17T1523Z through 2026-09-30T1517Z (absence check); cross-cited via [mss-2ghz-spectrum](dossiers/mss-2ghz-spectrum)'s own 2026-09-28 TRACKED SERIES check and dockets.md |
| 128 | 2026-09-30 (checked) | Globalstar transfer-of-control docket, confirmed still pending | GN Docket No. 26-134 remains unapproved, the contingency still gating the D2D application's pleading cycle | cross-cited via [mss-2ghz-spectrum](dossiers/mss-2ghz-spectrum)'s 2026-09-30 TRACKED SERIES check |
| 129 | 2026-09-30 (passed) | Guided Q3 2026 commercial-service start window closes with no confirmed launch | no brief, inbox file or EDGAR filing between Sep 20 and Sep 30 reports Amazon Leo beginning paid consumer service; the "later in 2026" CFO guidance stays neither confirmed met nor missed pending Amazon's Q3 2026 earnings call | briefs/2026-09/2026-09-21T0346Z.md through briefs/2026-10/2026-10-02T1530Z.md (absence check, this run) |
| 130 | 2026-10-02 (confirmed) | FCC document-mirror stall persists, independently reconfirmed | five weeks on, fcc-docs-index.json's watermark advanced again, to {DA-26:7523, FCC-26:1380}, with its saved-document list still capped at Aug 28; the daily brief's own Sep 21-Oct 1 ops-repair tracking independently flags the identical gap ("still caps at FCC-26-60/Aug 28, no order number yet assigned in the mirror"); DA 26-973 above was recovered by a direct docs.fcc.gov fetch of its known document number, not through the mirror, the same bypass method confirmed 2026-09-20 | sources/latest/fcc-docs-index.json (scanned 2026-10-02T20:36:57Z); briefs/2026-09/2026-09-21T0346Z.md through briefs/2026-10/2026-10-01T0352Z.md |
Earlier claims that evidence disproved — kept on record. 8 corrections documented.
Claim: "396 satellites (~24.5% of its 1,618-sat FCC 50%-milestone)" and "a full 3,236-satellite constellation" — the Gen1 milestone bar and authorized total. Believed: 2026-07-20 (dossier creation) through 2026-07-27, and still carried in priors.md's Amazon Leo thread entry as the "1,618-sat bar." Overturned: 2026-07-27, by a full primary read of FCC DA 26-553 — ¶3 states the requirement as "1,616 satellites by July 30, 2026 and 3,232 satellites by July 30, 2029," and n.4 records that a 2024 modification (Gen1 Orbital Parameters Modification, 39 FCC Rcd 2180) "reduc[ed] the total number of authorized space stations from 3,236 to 3,232 satellites." The 1,618/3,236 pair is the pre-2024 authorization and remains widely replicated in trade press and search summaries. The derived percentage is materially unchanged (396/1,616 = 24.5%); the citable bar is not.
Claim: "Its first announced commercial agreement is a wholesale/reseller deal: South Africa's Herotel," with the "distribution as differentiator" thesis resting on "one wholesale deal and a service-readiness claim." Believed: 2026-07-20 through 2026-07-27. Overturned: 2026-07-27. Amazon Leo's announced commercial agreements predate Herotel by up to three years: Verizon backhaul (2021), Vodafone/Vodacom cellular backhaul for Europe and Africa (2023-09-05, Vodafone's own newsroom), JetBlue in-flight connectivity (2025-09-04, ~75 aircraft from 2027, JetBlue's own release), Delta in-flight connectivity (2026-03-31, 500 aircraft from 2028, aboutamazon.com), an enterprise beta live since 2026-04-08 with Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone, JetBlue and NASA among partners, and a seven-partner US indirect channel. Amazon's own Herotel release claims only "the first Amazon Leo agreement of this kind in Africa." The error also mis-set the thesis's falsifier: Delta selected Amazon Leo over Starlink and JetBlue selected LEO over incumbent GEO, so the "wins only where Starlink is licence-blocked" test was already partly resolved in the thesis's favour before this dossier posed it.
Claim: the rebrand from "Project Kuiper" to "Amazon Leo" happened in 2026 (TRACKED SERIES row dated "2026," sourced to brief 2026-07-02/03). Believed: 2026-07-20 through 2026-07-27. Overturned: 2026-07-27 — the rename was announced in November 2025; the July 2026 briefs recorded the desk's own first sighting, not the event. Low analytic weight, logged for traceability because the dossier stated it as a dated fact.
Claim: the Globalstar transfer-of-control review "sits in docket 26-129." Believed: 2026-07-20 (dossier creation) through 2026-08-01. Overturned: 2026-08-01. The correct docket is GN Docket No. 26-134 (ICFS File No. ITC-T/C 20260417-00114), per Amazon's own July 24 D2D application (footnote 2, citing "Application for Consent to Assign and Transfer Control of Licenses and Authorizations... GN Docket No. 26-134 (filed May 26, 2026)"). The original "26-129" row was sourced only to ECFS mirror metadata for a public-interest statement this dossier's own citation flagged as "403-blocked, not read" — a secondary/unread-primary source that a later, actually-read primary document overturned. Low standalone analytic weight (the underlying facts — filing date, parties, subject matter — were otherwise correct) but logged because the dossier stated a specific docket number as fact and it was wrong.
Claim: "Every commercial commitment is forward-dated... nothing in the demand book produces 2026 revenue," stated in STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS and restated in THESIS as "every commercial commitment Amazon Leo holds is forward-dated to 2027-2028." Believed: 2026-07-27 through 2026-08-07. Overturned: 2026-08-07, by a re-mine of two proprietary Farrar/TMF Associates reports already sitting in inbox/ (not new drops) that this dossier had read once for capacity/cost estimates but never re-mined for buried commercial facts. Footnotes in each identify two commitments. NBN Co selected Amazon/Project Kuiper for a wholesale residential LEO contract in Australia covering 300,000+ premises, targeted to launch "from the middle of 2026" (NBN Co's own press release, Aug 5, 2025). Amazon Kuiper has also held US state BEAD broadband-subsidy awards since mid-2025, with construction "as early as summer 2026." Colorado alone awarded $25.3M for 42,252 locations on Aug 25, 2025, and an unconfirmed New Street Research estimate puts the national footprint at ~219,000 locations across ~19 states. Both are 2025-dated, 2026-delivering commitments, not 2027-2028 ones — the enterprise/aviation/D2D leg of the book (JetBlue, Delta, "evry," next-gen D2D) is still correctly forward-dated to 2027-2028, but it was never the whole book. Same failure class as the Herotel "first commercial deal" correction (07-27): a pre-archive sweep that stops at headline deals, not document footnotes, is incomplete.
Claim: Amazon Leo and SpaceX filed "dueling ex parte letters" on the 1675-1680MHz and 2020-2025MHz bands, a characterisation this dossier carried in a TRACKED SERIES row, in STATE OF PLAY and in POLITICAL & REGULATORY. Believed: 2026-09-07 through 2026-09-08, on ECFS mirror metadata alone — the row's own citation flagged the content "unread — 403-blocked at every path tried," and Open Question 16 was posed precisely because of that. Overturned: 2026-09-08, when both letters were retrieved in full through the ECFS single-filing-lookup endpoint and read. They are not dueling on the allocation: Amazon Leo's Sep 1 letter and SpaceX's Sep 3 answer both urge the Commission to open 1675-1695 MHz and 2020-2025 MHz for D2D. The real divergence is the regime attached to the grant. SpaceX asks for technology-neutral buildout tests carrying "automatic license termination for failure to meet final obligations," modelled on DA 26-471 and DA 26-653. It further asks the Commission to make that model permanent by rulemaking. That is the opposite of the accommodation Amazon obtained in DA 26-553, and it is aimed at the operator now furthest behind a deployment clock. Reading two same-week filings by rivals as opposed, on metadata alone, inverted the finding.
Claim: "Kuiper Systems has filed there three times since June — Comments, Reply Comments, and an Aug 31 ex parte." The dossier framed Amazon Leo as an "untracked party" newly arrived in FCC docket 25-157. Believed: 2026-09-07 through 2026-09-08. Overturned: 2026-09-08, by an ECFS proceeding query returning nine Kuiper Systems/Amazon Leo filings in docket 25-157 beginning 2025-07-28, tabulated in TRACKED SERIES. Amazon has been a continuous party to the EPFD proceeding for over a year, including an Opposition to DIRECTV's Petition for Reconsideration on 2026-07-21. The error came from counting only the filings that happened to surface in a 20-record bulk ECFS mirror pull rather than querying the proceeding itself.
Claim: the two high-capacity vehicles carrying most of Amazon Leo's manifest "were grounded or unflown through H1 2026," with THESIS carrying "remain grounded or unflown." A TRACKED SERIES row described New Glenn as "NET-2026 after a GS1 booster static-fire explosion." Believed: 2026-07-20 through 2026-09-08. Overturned: 2026-09-08, by the planet4589 GCAT primary launch catalog. New Glenn flew NG3 on 2026-04-19, inside H1 2026, carrying AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird SM007 rather than an Amazon payload. It was grounded afterwards by that mission's upper-stage mishap and then the May 28 LC-36 pad explosion. The corrected statement is sharper than the wrong one: the vehicle is not unflown, it has simply never flown for Amazon Leo. Same failure class as the Cape Canaveral launch-date error recorded in launch-bottleneck — a date-specific detail inside an otherwise-correct story needs its own primary-catalog check.