Timeline — 1 item, newest first
- Japan MIC approved 700 MHz satellite D2D on June 24 — a band only Rakuten holds — directly advantages Rakuten-AST bid over KDDI-SpaceX in ¥150B (~$1B) J-LEO sovereign contract; decision expected by end of June; Rakuten CEO frames AST partnership as "critical for Japan security." First major APAC sovereign D2D choice is non-SpaceX.WhatOn June 24, 2026, a subcommittee of Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) Information and Communications Council formally approved a recommendation allowing direct communications between LEO satellites and smartphones using the 700 MHz frequency band. Among Japan's four MNOs, only Rakuten Mobile holds 700 MHz allocation. This structural fact means the 700 MHz approval is an implicit regulatory endorsement of the Rakuten Mobile–AST SpaceMobile JV architecture (planned 50/50 JV, phased rollout end-2026, nationwide FY2027) over the competing KDDI–SpaceX consortium (which would rely on 2 GHz MSS spectrum). Japan's J-LEO initiative (¥150B/$1B MIC subsidy, covering up to 50% of project cost) is expected to award by end of June 2026. MIC is to revise ministerial ordinances in September. Rakuten CEO named AST SpaceMobile push "critical for Japan security amid SpaceX rivalry" — explicit sovereign-alignment framing. J-LEO requires nationwide D2D coverage by March 2029. BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 (announced June 23) target first-half August launch on Falcon 9, adding to 8/9/10 launched June 17; combined constellation progressing toward Japan rollout cadence.SourceSES Read-AcrossIf Japan awards J-LEO to Rakuten-AST rather than KDDI-SpaceX, it establishes a major-allied-nation precedent that sovereign D2D infrastructure can be built without SpaceX. This has two implications: (1) weakens SpaceX's narrative that it is the only viable partner for sovereign satcom — relevant to EU's COM(2026) 311 and IRIS2 political calculus; (2) the 700 MHz path (cellular band, not 2 GHz MSS) demonstrates an alternative spectrum route for sovereign D2D that bypasses the EU's COM(2026) 311 framework entirely — a structural note for Brussels spectrum policy. No direct SES revenue impact; indirect: any non-SpaceX sovereign win validates the "non-Musk anchor" thesis SES uses in IRIS2 positioning.ConfidenceHIGH on 700 MHz regulatory approval; MEDIUM on J-LEO outcome (end-June decision expected but timing unconfirmed; Rakuten advantage is structural, not guaranteed).