Timeline — 2 items, newest first
- Japan MIC approved 700 MHz satellite D2D on June 24 — a band only Rakuten holds — directly advantages Rakuten-AST bid over KDDI-SpaceX in ¥150B (~$1B) J-LEO sovereign contract; decision expected by end of June; Rakuten CEO frames AST partnership as "critical for Japan security." First major APAC sovereign D2D choice is non-SpaceX.WhatOn June 24, 2026, a subcommittee of Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) Information and Communications Council formally approved a recommendation allowing direct communications between LEO satellites and smartphones using the 700 MHz frequency band. Among Japan's four MNOs, only Rakuten Mobile holds 700 MHz allocation. This structural fact means the 700 MHz approval is an implicit regulatory endorsement of the Rakuten Mobile–AST SpaceMobile JV architecture (planned 50/50 JV, phased rollout end-2026, nationwide FY2027) over the competing KDDI–SpaceX consortium (which would rely on 2 GHz MSS spectrum). Japan's J-LEO initiative (¥150B/$1B MIC subsidy, covering up to 50% of project cost) is expected to award by end of June 2026. MIC is to revise ministerial ordinances in September. Rakuten CEO named AST SpaceMobile push "critical for Japan security amid SpaceX rivalry" — explicit sovereign-alignment framing. J-LEO requires nationwide D2D coverage by March 2029. BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 (announced June 23) target first-half August launch on Falcon 9, adding to 8/9/10 launched June 17; combined constellation progressing toward Japan rollout cadence.SourceSES Read-AcrossIf Japan awards J-LEO to Rakuten-AST rather than KDDI-SpaceX, it establishes a major-allied-nation precedent that sovereign D2D infrastructure can be built without SpaceX. This has two implications: (1) weakens SpaceX's narrative that it is the only viable partner for sovereign satcom — relevant to EU's COM(2026) 311 and IRIS2 political calculus; (2) the 700 MHz path (cellular band, not 2 GHz MSS) demonstrates an alternative spectrum route for sovereign D2D that bypasses the EU's COM(2026) 311 framework entirely — a structural note for Brussels spectrum policy. No direct SES revenue impact; indirect: any non-SpaceX sovereign win validates the "non-Musk anchor" thesis SES uses in IRIS2 positioning.ConfidenceHIGH on 700 MHz regulatory approval; MEDIUM on J-LEO outcome (end-June decision expected but timing unconfirmed; Rakuten advantage is structural, not guaranteed).
- AST SpaceMobile announces BlueBirds 11, 12, 13 for first half of August (June 23) — 10 sats in orbit, FCC commercial authority granted, D2D cadence is falsifying the "2x slip" base rate; 2 GHz block competitor is becoming operational faster than modelled.WhatAST SpaceMobile announced June 23 (BusinessWire) that BlueBirds 11, 12, and 13 are targeted to launch on a Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral in the first half of August. This follows: (a) successful orbital launch of BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 on June 17 — now 10 next-gen satellites in orbit; (b) FCC commercial authority granted April 22 for nationwide U.S. D2D broadband; (c) AT&T beta D2D satellite service in preparation; (d) peak download of 98.9 Mbps measured to unmodified smartphones from BlueBirds 1–7. Each Block 2 satellite measures ~2,400 sq ft and supports 10 GHz of processing bandwidth, 120 Mbps peak per coverage cell. Partners include AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Google, Rakuten, Bell, Telus, stc Group, American Tower — ~60 MNOs, ~3B subscribers combined. The company is targeting continuous U.S. coverage by end of 2026 (45–60 satellites total).SourceSES Read-AcrossThe base rate in priors.md was "assume ~2x slip until demonstrated on-orbit performance changes the prior." That prior should now be retired. AST has: FCC commercial authority, real MNO contracts, demonstrated 98.9 Mbps, and a launch cadence of 3 satellites per 5–6 weeks. At ~13 sats by mid-August and 45–60 by year-end, AST approaches meaningful U.S./Europe/Japan/Saudi coverage on the 2 GHz block — the same spectrum that COM(2026) 311 is restructuring for SES's IRIS2 benefit. The threat vector is not IRIS2 directly (AST operates commercial D2D, not govt secure comms), but AST's progress (1) validates that D2D on 2 GHz is commercially real, not theoretical; (2) strengthens SpaceX's ITU-priority legal argument (see T0630Z S2) by showing a competitive market exists for the reserved spectrum; and (3) creates a parallel commercial 2 GHz D2D lane that could absorb enterprise demand SES otherwise serves via GEO. The 2 GHz MSS EXISTENTIAL thread now has a materialising commercial competitor, not just a regulatory fight.ConfidenceHIGH — multiple corroborating PRIMARY sources; FCC authority confirmed by government record.